Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Hemorraghic Fever and  Climate Variability Patterns in Depok and Bogor

Authors

Haryoto Kusnoputranto1 , Margareta Maria Sintorini2 ,Suyud Warno Utomo1, Epi Ria Kristina Sinaga1 Nurusysyarifah Aliyyah3, Okky Assetya Pratiwi4

system dynamics model, intervention, simulation, dengue hemorrhagic fever, climate change

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) has become an endemic in major cities in Indonesia. Climate change, and

poor level of awareness and knowledge of the community in Indonesia causes the case of DHF to continue

to exist and it tends to increase. In the extraordinary events in 2015 the morbidity rate reached 50.75. The

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) prediction in 1996 stated that the incidence of dengue

hemorrhagic fever in Indonesia will increase threefold from 2070, if the environment and community

conditions do not change. This study aims to produce a system dynamics model with ecological analysis to

determine the dynamics of the DHF incidence with climate variability patterns in Depok and Bogor. The design

of this study is ecologic study with hypothesis test, modeling, simulation, and intervention. Interviews with

respondents include the level of knowledge, attitudes, and behavior (PSP) of the community. Measurement

of climate factor includes rainfall, temperature, humidity, and CO2 level in the ambient environment. The

results of DHF system dynamics model simulation show the program intervention scenario that has the

most significant effect on the decline of Breeding Places and the decrease of DHF cases by increasing the

participation of the community to actively control water places that are potential for mosquito breeding

places.