Meteorological Conditions Associated with AES/JE Outbreak 2019 in Bihar
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37506/ijphrd.v11i7.10180Keywords:
Mean Maximum Temperature, Acute Encephalitis Syndrome, AES, Heat Index, Monsoon, Bihar, MuzaffarpurAbstract
Analysis of the incidences of AES during 2019 over Bihar brought out the highest incidence of AES cases in
June (78.5%) followed by July (12.6%). A similar pattern was found in the number of deaths associated with
AES. Maximum incidences were reported from Muzaffarpur (559) and East Champaran (113) districts in
north Bihar; and Gaya in south Bihar (72). More than 50% of the incidences and deaths were reported from
children up to the age of 5 years; and more than 90% from children up to the age of 10 years indicating high
vulnerability of children. Female children were found to be impacted more with 53% of the total incidences
and 58% of the total deaths.
The highest percentage of AES cases (78.5%) were reported in June followed by July (12.6%). The highest
percentage of deaths were reported in June (69.5%) followed by July (19%). An analysis of the incidences of
AES cases in the worst affected district (Muzaffarpur) shows a high degree of correlation with the maximum
temperature of the past few days. A second-degree polynomial best described the relationship between the
mean maximum temperature of the last two days and the incidence of AES cases in Muzaffarpur district
(R2 =0.74).
